IMF Downgrades Nigeria’s Growth
The IMF lowered Nigeria’s 2023 economic growth forecast by 0.03% due to weaker oil and gas production, as stated in its October World Economic Outlook, themed ‘Navigating Global Divergences.’
This recent downgrade is disappointing, given that in July, the IMF had forecasted 3.2% growth for Nigeria in 2023, considering security challenges in the oil sector.
The IMF predicts Nigeria’s growth to drop from 3.3% in 2022 to 2.9% in 2023 and then rise to 3.1% in 2024, driven by high inflation affecting consumption.
The IMF cites a 0.3% downward revision for 2023 due to lower-than-expected oil and gas production, partly due to maintenance work.
Nigeria’s Q2 2023 GDP grew by 2.51%, but the IMF expects sub-Saharan Africa’s growth to dip to 3.3% in 2023 due to weather shocks, global slowdown, and supply challenges.
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Despite challenges, the IMF cautiously predicts 2024 growth at 4.0%, below the region’s 4.8% historic average.
The IMF predicts a slowdown in advance economics from 2.6% growth in 2022 to 1.4% in 2024 due to policy tightening. Emerging ,markets are expected to see modest growth at 4.0% in 2023 and 2024, down from 4.1% in 2022.
Global inflation, a concern, is expected to ease, with IMF projecting a decline from 8.7% in 2022 to 5.8% in 2024, signaling relief from recent surges
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